The Pessimist

ThePessimist is a happy camper this week. On Wednesday I attended a lecture by Gwynne Dyer at the local university called Climate Wars. I didn't know it when I acquired the tickets, but this was his world premier "performance" of the topic.

If you don't know Dyer, then you should get to know him. He is described as a free-lance journalist, military historian and author. He writes a biweekly column syndicated in 200 newspapers around the world. But I've read him for years and have seen him speak once before, and in my opinion he is one of the biggest thinkers in the world. He travels widely and speaks with a who's who of scientists, politicians, dissidents, military personnel and think-tanks. He can speak in surprising depth about any topic, and takes a broad view that interconnects all diverse facets of any issue.

So, anyway, that was my fan letter. I'm so happy because his talk confirmed things that I believe and have been saying here for some time.

A couple months ago, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a report confirming that scientists have reached a consensus that global warming is directly related to human activities. However, despite taking their 15 minutes on the world stage, they diluted everything they were saying by stating that by the end of the century global warming could cost one million lives. The world then shrugged and took their SUV to the shopping mall.

When I heard this statement, I was certain that they had their estimates off by at least an order of magnitude, if not two.

Dyer spoke for 90 minutes, and I'm sure a book will follow shortly. I of course can't do it justice, but here is the match-book version of his talk:

While global warming will cause consequences such as melting polar ice caps, rising sea levels and more severe weather events, these are not the most important considerations. The most serious impact of global warming will be on agriculture - food production.

Food crises have been predicted for centuries, but food production has always kept ahead of population growth. But not this time. In the last 60 years, world population has tripled from 2 billion to 6 billion. But agricultural output has also tripled due to mechanization of farming methods, putting more land under the till, applying massive amounts of (oil based) fertilizer, and by genetic tinkering with crop yields. But there is nothing left in the bag of tricks to continue this massive expansion of food production. All viable land is already under cultivation, fertilizer has reached the point of diminishing returns (not to mention peak-oil being just around the corner, and most crops are already a mono-culture. There is no potential imminent for another 100% increase in world food production.

But the population has not stopped growing. Yes, birth rates are falling toward replacement levels (2 children per woman), but populations continue to grow because of longer life expectancies. So, the balance between food demand and food supply is very close right now. Enter global warming.

Predictions are of an average increase in temperature over the next century of between 2 and 5 degrees Celsius. Research done for the World Bank estimates that the affect of a 2 degree increase in temperature would be a 25% reduction in agricultural output.

Dyer took the example of India to illustrate. India has 1 billion people. India is self-sufficent in food - neither a net importer nor exporter of food. Much of India's "bread-basket" under a 2 degree change would move toward desertification, becoming nonproductive or less productive. A 25% reduction in food production will leave 250 million people without food.

Scary, eh? Will India import the needed shortfall? From where? China will have the same problem. And, to a lesser extent, so will the U.S and Russia.

One million may die? One hundred million sounds like a more reasonable estimate - two orders of magnitude greater than the UN's estimate last month. The UN has missed their opportunity to ring some alarm bells to call the world to action.

ThePessimist will be long dead before any of this comes to pass; but he pities your grandchildren.